Dunkerque
Montpellier
The model leans Montpellier at 36%. Expected goals: Dunkerque 1.16, Montpellier 1.25. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Dunkerque won 1 of their last 4; Montpellier won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dunkerque | 33% | 3.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.31 | – | – | – |
| 2Montpellier | 37% | 2.69 | – | – | – |
Pick: Montpellier. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.16 – 1.25| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dunkerque 0| Dunkerque line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 20% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 22% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.