Nancy
Montpellier
The model leans Montpellier at 45%. Expected goals: Nancy 0.83, Montpellier 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 57%. Nancy won 2 of their last 5; Montpellier won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nancy | 22% | 4.63 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Montpellier | 48% | 2.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Montpellier. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.83 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.2%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Montpellier −0.5| Nancy line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 16% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 28% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 26% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.