Montpellier
Dijon
The model leans Montpellier at 39%. Expected goals: Montpellier 1.15, Dijon 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 61%. Montpellier won 2 of their last 4; Dijon won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Montpellier | 43% | 2.35 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Dijon | 24% | 4.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: Montpellier. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.15 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.4%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Montpellier −0.5| Montpellier line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 17% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.