Dijon
Pau
The model leans Dijon at 53%. Expected goals: Dijon 2.03, Pau 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%. Dijon won 0 of their last 4; Pau won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dijon | 60% | 1.66 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.37 | – | – | – |
| 2Pau | 17% | 5.92 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dijon. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.03 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–19.8%
- 3–06.7%
- 3–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dijon −1| Dijon line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 24% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.