Dijon
Saint-Étienne
The model leans Dijon at 30%. Expected goals: Dijon 1.19, Saint-Étienne 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%. Dijon won 0 of their last 4; Saint-Étienne won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dijon | 36% | 2.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.24 | – | – | – |
| 2Saint-Étienne | 33% | 3.00 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dijon. Calibrated probability 30% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 1.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–111.2%
- 0–09.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–27.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dijon 0| Dijon line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 21% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.