Predictions · Ligue 2 · outside model coverage

Saint-Etienne

31
Won

Clermont Foot

The model leans Saint-Etienne at 51%. Expected goals: Saint-Etienne 1.69, Clermont Foot 0.86. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%. Saint-Etienne won 5 of their last 6; Clermont Foot won 0 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Saint-Etienne56%1.79
XDraw26%3.81
2Clermont Foot18%5.64

Pick: Saint-Etienne. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.69 – 0.86
LineOverUnder
1.572%28%
2.547%53%
3.525%75%
Both teams to scoreYes47%No53%

Most likely scores

  • 1013.2%
  • 1111.3%
  • 2011.2%
  • 219.6%
  • 007.8%
  • 016.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Saint-Etienne −1
Saint-Etienne lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.532%68%
-132%25%43%
-0.557%43%
057%24%19%
+0.581%19%
+181%13%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.