Rodez
Pau
The model leans Rodez at 55%. Expected goals: Rodez 2.19, Pau 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 57%. Rodez won 2 of their last 4; Pau won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rodez | 63% | 1.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Pau | 15% | 6.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rodez. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.19 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 1–08.9%
- 3–17.2%
- 3–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rodez −1| Rodez line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 23% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.