Pau
Annecy FC
The model leans Annecy FC at 50%. Expected goals: Pau 1.37, Annecy FC 1.98. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%. Pau won 1 of their last 5; Annecy FC won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pau | 26% | 3.92 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.21 | – | – | – |
| 2Annecy FC | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Annecy FC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.37 – 1.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.0%
- 0–26.9%
- 2–16.5%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Annecy FC −0.5| Pau line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 15% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 22% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.