Nancy
Dunkerque
The model leans Dunkerque at 40%. Expected goals: Nancy 1.27, Dunkerque 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Nancy won 2 of their last 5; Dunkerque won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nancy | 30% | 3.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Dunkerque | 43% | 2.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dunkerque. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.27 – 1.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–27.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dunkerque −0.5| Nancy line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 18% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 25% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.