Guingamp
Boulogne
The model leans Guingamp at 40%. Expected goals: Guingamp 1.26, Boulogne 0.93. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 55%. Guingamp won 1 of their last 6; Boulogne won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Guingamp | 43% | 2.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.20 | – | – | – |
| 2Boulogne | 26% | 3.83 | – | – | – |
Pick: Guingamp. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.26 – 0.93| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.0%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–08.9%
- 2–18.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Guingamp −0.5| Guingamp line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 24% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 18% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.