Metz
Guingamp
The model leans Metz at 37%. Expected goals: Metz 1.38, Guingamp 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. Metz won 2 of their last 5; Guingamp won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Metz | 40% | 2.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.46 | – | – | – |
| 2Guingamp | 31% | 3.19 | – | – | – |
Pick: Metz. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.38 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–07.5%
- 1–27.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Metz 0| Metz line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 22% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.