Metz
Fortuna Sittard
The model leans Fortuna Sittard at 39%. Expected goals: Metz 1.54, Fortuna Sittard 1.74. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. Metz won 2 of their last 5; Fortuna Sittard won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Metz | 33% | 3.01 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Fortuna Sittard | 42% | 2.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fortuna Sittard. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.54 – 1.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.1%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.5%
- 1–05.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 57% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Metz 0| Metz line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 18% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 20% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.