PSV Eindhoven
Fortuna Sittard
The model leans PSV Eindhoven at 71%. Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 3.97, Fortuna Sittard 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 89%, both teams to score 67%. PSV Eindhoven won 4 of their last 6; Fortuna Sittard won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PSV Eindhoven | 85% | 1.18 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 9% | 10.95 | – | – | – |
| 2Fortuna Sittard | 6% | 17.24 | – | – | – |
Pick: PSV Eindhoven. Calibrated probability 71% (raw model output 85%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.97 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 2.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 75% | 25% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 3–17.3%
- 4–17.3%
- 3–06.3%
- 4–06.3%
- 5–15.8%
- 2–15.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 71% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: PSV Eindhoven −2| PSV Eindhoven line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| -1 | 71% | 14% | 15% |
| -0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| 0 | 85% | 9% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 4% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.