Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage

PSV Eindhoven

30
Won

FC Eindhoven

The model leans PSV Eindhoven at 78%. Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 5.26, FC Eindhoven 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 94%, both teams to score 57%. PSV Eindhoven won 4 of their last 6; FC Eindhoven won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1PSV Eindhoven95%1.05
XDraw3%30.12
2FC Eindhoven1%72.99

Pick: PSV Eindhoven. Calibrated probability 78% (raw model output 95%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 99%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 5.26 – 0.85
LineOverUnder
1.598%2%
2.594%6%
3.585%15%
Both teams to scoreYes57%No43%

Most likely scores

  • 508.2%
  • 407.8%
  • 607.2%
  • 516.9%
  • 416.6%
  • 616.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 73% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: PSV Eindhoven −2
PSV Eindhoven lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.588%12%
-188%7%5%
-0.595%5%
095%3%2%
+0.598%2%
+198%1%0%
+1.5100%0%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.