FC Den Bosch
FC Eindhoven
The model leans FC Den Bosch at 50%. Expected goals: FC Den Bosch 2.27, FC Eindhoven 1.62. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 73%. FC Den Bosch won 1 of their last 4; FC Eindhoven won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Den Bosch | 52% | 1.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.64 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Eindhoven | 27% | 3.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Den Bosch. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.27 – 1.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–26.1%
- 2–05.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Den Bosch −0.5| FC Den Bosch line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 20% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 20% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 15% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.