Heracles
FC Den Bosch
The model leans Heracles at 40%. Expected goals: Heracles 2.00, FC Den Bosch 1.77. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 73%. Heracles won 4 of their last 4; FC Den Bosch won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Heracles | 43% | 2.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.37 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Den Bosch | 34% | 2.93 | – | – | – |
Pick: Heracles. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.00 – 1.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 1–18.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.4%
- 3–24.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Heracles 0| Heracles line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 19% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 21% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 17% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.