FC Eindhoven
Heracles
The model leans FC Eindhoven at 40%. Expected goals: FC Eindhoven 1.84, Heracles 1.60. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%. FC Eindhoven won 1 of their last 6; Heracles won 4 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Eindhoven | 43% | 2.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.13 | – | – | – |
| 2Heracles | 33% | 3.03 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Eindhoven. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.84 – 1.60| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.9%
- 2–05.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Eindhoven 0| FC Eindhoven line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 20% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 22% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 17% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.