Predictions · Eerste Divisie · outside model coverage

FC Eindhoven

13
Lost

Heracles

The model leans FC Eindhoven at 40%. Expected goals: FC Eindhoven 1.84, Heracles 1.60. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%. FC Eindhoven won 1 of their last 6; Heracles won 4 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FC Eindhoven43%2.34
XDraw24%4.13
2Heracles33%3.03

Pick: FC Eindhoven. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.84 – 1.60
LineOverUnder
1.586%14%
2.567%33%
3.545%55%
Both teams to scoreYes67%No33%

Most likely scores

  • 119.4%
  • 218.7%
  • 127.6%
  • 227.0%
  • 105.9%
  • 205.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FC Eindhoven 0
FC Eindhoven lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.524%76%
-124%20%56%
-0.544%56%
044%22%34%
+0.566%34%
+166%17%16%
+1.584%16%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.