Willem II
FC Eindhoven
The model leans Willem II at 60%. Expected goals: Willem II 2.27, FC Eindhoven 0.86. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. Willem II won 1 of their last 5; FC Eindhoven won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Willem II | 68% | 1.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.06 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Eindhoven | 12% | 8.44 | – | – | – |
Pick: Willem II. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.27 – 0.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.3%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.5%
- 3–08.5%
- 3–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Willem II −1.5| Willem II line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| -1 | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| -0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| 0 | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.