Willem II
SC Heerenveen
The model leans SC Heerenveen at 35%. Expected goals: Willem II 1.35, SC Heerenveen 1.39. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%. Willem II won 1 of their last 5; SC Heerenveen won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Willem II | 35% | 2.85 | 3.90 | 24% | +11 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.57 | 4.33 | 22% | +6 |
| 2SC Heerenveen | 37% | 2.71 | 1.75 | 54% | −17 |
Pick: SC Heerenveen. Calibrated probability 35% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.35 – 1.39| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Willem II 0| Willem II line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.