Willem II
KV Mechelen
The model leans Willem II at 42%. Expected goals: Willem II 1.46, KV Mechelen 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%. Willem II won 1 of their last 5; KV Mechelen won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Willem II | 45% | 2.21 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
| 2KV Mechelen | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: Willem II. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.46 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–08.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Willem II −0.5| Willem II line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 24% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 26% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.