Willem II
NEC Nijmegen
The model leans NEC Nijmegen at 41%. Expected goals: Willem II 1.42, NEC Nijmegen 1.74. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 64%. Willem II won 1 of their last 5; NEC Nijmegen won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Willem II | 31% | 3.27 | 4.33 | 22% | +9 |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.94 | 4.50 | 21% | +4 |
| 2NEC Nijmegen | 44% | 2.27 | 1.67 | 57% | −13 |
Pick: NEC Nijmegen. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.42 – 1.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–17.4%
- 2–26.5%
- 0–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: NEC Nijmegen −0.5| Willem II line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 17% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 23% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.