NEC Nijmegen
Al-Fayha
The model leans NEC Nijmegen at 61%. Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 2.61, Al-Fayha 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 63%. NEC Nijmegen won 3 of their last 6; Al-Fayha won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1NEC Nijmegen | 69% | 1.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.60 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Fayha | 13% | 7.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: NEC Nijmegen. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.61 – 1.10| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–18.0%
- 3–07.2%
- 1–17.0%
- 1–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: NEC Nijmegen −1.5| NEC Nijmegen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| -1 | 48% | 21% | 30% |
| -0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| 0 | 70% | 16% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 9% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.