Predictions · Saudi Pro League · outside model coverage

Al-Taawoun

00
Lost

Al-Fayha

The model leans Al-Taawoun at 51%. Expected goals: Al-Taawoun 1.97, Al-Fayha 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%. Al-Taawoun won 1 of their last 5; Al-Fayha won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Al-Taawoun58%1.72
XDraw24%4.25
2Al-Fayha18%5.48

Pick: Al-Taawoun. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.97 – 1.03
LineOverUnder
1.580%20%
2.558%42%
3.535%65%
Both teams to scoreYes55%No45%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.1%
  • 2110.0%
  • 109.8%
  • 209.7%
  • 316.5%
  • 306.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Al-Taawoun −1
Al-Taawoun lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.535%65%
-135%24%41%
-0.559%41%
059%22%19%
+0.581%19%
+181%12%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.