Al Nassr FC
Al-Taawoun
The model leans Al Nassr FC at 64%. Expected goals: Al Nassr FC 2.63, Al-Taawoun 0.93. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 57%. Al Nassr FC won 5 of their last 5; Al-Taawoun won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Nassr FC | 73% | 1.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.97 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Taawoun | 10% | 9.81 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Nassr FC. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 73%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.63 – 0.93| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–08.7%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.5%
- 1–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Nassr FC −1.5| Al Nassr FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| -1 | 52% | 21% | 26% |
| -0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| 0 | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.