Al-Taawoun
Al Khaleej
The model leans Al-Taawoun at 54%. Expected goals: Al-Taawoun 2.50, Al Khaleej 1.31. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 68%. Al-Taawoun won 1 of their last 5; Al Khaleej won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Taawoun | 63% | 1.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.12 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Khaleej | 18% | 5.61 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Taawoun. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.50 – 1.31| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 53% | 47% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–06.9%
- 2–25.9%
- 3–05.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Taawoun −1| Al-Taawoun line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 21% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 18% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 11% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.