Predictions · Saudi Pro League · outside model coverage

Al-Taawoun

00
Lost

Al Khaleej

The model leans Al-Taawoun at 54%. Expected goals: Al-Taawoun 2.50, Al Khaleej 1.31. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 68%. Al-Taawoun won 1 of their last 5; Al Khaleej won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Al-Taawoun63%1.60
XDraw20%5.12
2Al Khaleej18%5.61

Pick: Al-Taawoun. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.50 – 1.31
LineOverUnder
1.589%11%
2.573%27%
3.553%47%
Both teams to scoreYes67%No33%

Most likely scores

  • 219.1%
  • 317.6%
  • 117.3%
  • 206.9%
  • 225.9%
  • 305.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Al-Taawoun −1
Al-Taawoun lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.542%58%
-142%21%37%
-0.563%37%
063%18%19%
+0.581%19%
+181%11%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.