Predictions · Saudi Pro League · outside model coverage

Neom SC

30
Won

Al Khaleej

The model leans Neom SC at 47%. Expected goals: Neom SC 1.91, Al Khaleej 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%. Neom SC won 4 of their last 6; Al Khaleej won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Neom SC49%2.03
XDraw24%4.12
2Al Khaleej27%3.77

Pick: Neom SC. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.91 – 1.36
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.563%37%
3.541%59%
Both teams to scoreYes63%No37%

Most likely scores

  • 119.9%
  • 219.4%
  • 107.2%
  • 206.9%
  • 126.7%
  • 226.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 57% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Neom SC −0.5
Neom SC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.528%72%
-128%22%50%
-0.550%50%
050%22%28%
+0.572%28%
+172%16%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.