Predictions · Saudi Pro League · outside model coverage

Neom SC

21
Won

Al-Fayha

The model leans Neom SC at 42%. Expected goals: Neom SC 1.50, Al-Fayha 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. Neom SC won 4 of their last 6; Al-Fayha won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Neom SC46%2.18
XDraw28%3.54
2Al-Fayha26%3.87

Pick: Neom SC. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.50 – 1.07
LineOverUnder
1.573%27%
2.548%52%
3.526%74%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.3%
  • 1011.4%
  • 219.2%
  • 208.6%
  • 018.2%
  • 007.6%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Neom SC −0.5
Neom SC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.524%76%
-124%23%53%
-0.547%53%
047%26%27%
+0.573%27%
+173%17%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.