Al-Fayha
Abha
The model leans Al-Fayha at 41%. Expected goals: Al-Fayha 1.48, Abha 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%. Al-Fayha won 2 of their last 6; Abha won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Fayha | 44% | 2.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.52 | – | – | – |
| 2Abha | 27% | 3.66 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Fayha. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.48 – 1.11| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Fayha −0.5| Al-Fayha line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 23% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 26% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 17% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.