Al Ahli
Abha
The model leans Al Ahli at 69%. Expected goals: Al Ahli 2.60, Abha 0.57. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 59%. Al Ahli won 3 of their last 6; Abha won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Ahli | 80% | 1.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 6.93 | – | – | – |
| 2Abha | 5% | 18.52 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Ahli. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 80%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.60 – 0.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.2%
- 3–012.3%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–18.1%
- 4–08.0%
- 3–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS No 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Ahli −2| Al Ahli line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| -1 | 59% | 21% | 19% |
| -0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| 0 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.