Al Kholood
Al Ahli
The model leans Al Ahli at 64%. Expected goals: Al Kholood 0.71, Al Ahli 2.35. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%. Al Kholood won 3 of their last 6; Al Ahli won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Kholood | 9% | 11.52 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.56 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Ahli | 73% | 1.36 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Ahli. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 73%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.71 – 2.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 0–213.0%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–310.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 1–37.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Ahli −1.5| Al Kholood line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 7% | 91% |
| -0.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| 0 | 9% | 16% | 74% |
| +0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| +1 | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| +1.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.