Predictions · Saudi Pro League · outside model coverage

Al Ittihad

11
Lost

Al Kholood

The model leans Al Ittihad at 60%. Expected goals: Al Ittihad 2.31, Al Kholood 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 58%. Al Ittihad won 3 of their last 6; Al Kholood won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Al Ittihad66%1.51
XDraw20%4.99
2Al Kholood14%7.18

Pick: Al Ittihad. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.31 – 0.99
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.564%36%
3.542%58%
Both teams to scoreYes57%No43%

Most likely scores

  • 209.8%
  • 219.7%
  • 108.5%
  • 118.4%
  • 307.6%
  • 317.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Al Ittihad −1
Al Ittihad lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.544%56%
-144%23%33%
-0.567%33%
067%18%15%
+0.585%15%
+185%10%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.