Al Qadsiah
Al Ittihad
The model leans Al Qadsiah at 61%. Expected goals: Al Qadsiah 2.64, Al Ittihad 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 64%. Al Qadsiah won 5 of their last 6; Al Ittihad won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Qadsiah | 69% | 1.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.63 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Ittihad | 13% | 7.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Qadsiah. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.64 – 1.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.1%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–08.0%
- 3–07.0%
- 1–16.9%
- 1–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Qadsiah −1.5| Al Qadsiah line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| -1 | 48% | 21% | 31% |
| -0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| 0 | 69% | 16% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 9% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.