Al Qadsiah
Al-Faisaly
The model leans Al Qadsiah at 61%. Expected goals: Al Qadsiah 2.79, Al-Faisaly 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 66%. Al Qadsiah won 5 of their last 6; Al-Faisaly won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Qadsiah | 70% | 1.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.93 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Faisaly | 13% | 7.55 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Qadsiah. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.79 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 56% | 44% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.6%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–07.2%
- 3–06.7%
- 1–16.2%
- 4–15.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Qadsiah −1.5| Al Qadsiah line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| -1 | 50% | 20% | 30% |
| -0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| 0 | 70% | 16% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 9% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.