Al Diriyah
Al Qadsiah
The model leans Al Qadsiah at 53%. Expected goals: Al Diriyah 1.48, Al Qadsiah 2.61. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 72%. Al Diriyah won 2 of their last 6; Al Qadsiah won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Diriyah | 20% | 5.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Qadsiah | 61% | 1.63 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Qadsiah. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.48 – 2.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.4%
- 1–37.4%
- 1–16.5%
- 2–26.3%
- 0–25.7%
- 2–35.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Qadsiah −1| Al Diriyah line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 12% | 80% |
| -0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| 0 | 20% | 18% | 62% |
| +0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| +1 | 38% | 20% | 41% |
| +1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.