Al Hazem
Al Diriyah
The model leans Al Diriyah at 42%. Expected goals: Al Hazem 1.50, Al Diriyah 1.87. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 67%. Al Hazem won 2 of their last 5; Al Diriyah won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Hazem | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.12 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Diriyah | 46% | 2.19 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Diriyah. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.50 – 1.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.4%
- 0–26.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Diriyah −0.5| Al Hazem line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 17% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 22% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 21% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.