Al Bukayriyah
Al Hazem
The model leans Al Hazem at 53%. Expected goals: Al Bukayriyah 0.74, Al Hazem 1.74. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%. Al Bukayriyah won 0 of their last 4; Al Hazem won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Bukayriyah | 14% | 6.97 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.95 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Hazem | 60% | 1.66 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Hazem. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.74 – 1.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.7%
- 0–212.7%
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.4%
- 0–37.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Hazem −1| Al Bukayriyah line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 11% | 85% |
| -0.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| 0 | 15% | 23% | 61% |
| +0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| +1 | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| +1.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.