Al Bukayriyah
Al Akhdoud
The model leans Al Akhdoud at 38%. Expected goals: Al Bukayriyah 0.88, Al Akhdoud 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%. Al Bukayriyah won 0 of their last 4; Al Akhdoud won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Bukayriyah | 27% | 3.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.03 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Akhdoud | 40% | 2.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Akhdoud. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.88 – 1.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.2%
- 0–013.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–27.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Bukayriyah 0| Al Bukayriyah line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 19% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 30% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 24% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.