Predictions · Saudi Arabian First Division League · outside model coverage

Al Bukayriyah

11
Lost

Al Akhdoud

The model leans Al Akhdoud at 38%. Expected goals: Al Bukayriyah 0.88, Al Akhdoud 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%. Al Bukayriyah won 0 of their last 4; Al Akhdoud won 2 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Al Bukayriyah27%3.74
XDraw33%3.03
2Al Akhdoud40%2.49

Pick: Al Akhdoud. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.88 – 1.14
LineOverUnder
1.560%40%
2.533%67%
3.514%86%
Both teams to scoreYes40%No60%

Most likely scores

  • 0115.2%
  • 0013.4%
  • 1113.3%
  • 1011.7%
  • 028.6%
  • 127.6%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Al Bukayriyah 0
Al Bukayriyah lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.59%91%
-19%19%72%
-0.528%72%
028%30%42%
+0.558%42%
+158%24%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.