Predictions · King's Cup · outside model coverage

Al Akhdoud

20
Lost

Al Khaleej

The model leans Al Khaleej at 50%. Expected goals: Al Akhdoud 1.17, Al Khaleej 1.87. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. Al Akhdoud won 2 of their last 3; Al Khaleej won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Al Akhdoud23%4.43
XDraw25%4.06
2Al Khaleej53%1.89

Pick: Al Khaleej. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.17 – 1.87
LineOverUnder
1.581%19%
2.558%42%
3.536%64%
Both teams to scoreYes58%No42%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.5%
  • 129.8%
  • 019.0%
  • 028.4%
  • 136.1%
  • 216.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Al Khaleej −0.5
Al Akhdoud lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.59%91%
-19%14%76%
-0.524%76%
024%23%54%
+0.546%54%
+146%23%31%
+1.569%31%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.