Al Akhdoud
Al Khaleej
The model leans Al Khaleej at 50%. Expected goals: Al Akhdoud 1.17, Al Khaleej 1.87. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. Al Akhdoud won 2 of their last 3; Al Khaleej won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Akhdoud | 23% | 4.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.06 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Khaleej | 53% | 1.89 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Khaleej. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 1.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–36.1%
- 2–16.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Khaleej −0.5| Al Akhdoud line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 14% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 23% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| +1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.