Al Khaleej
Al Hilal
The model leans Al Hilal at 65%. Expected goals: Al Khaleej 0.97, Al Hilal 2.77. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 59%. Al Khaleej won 0 of their last 6; Al Hilal won 5 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Khaleej | 10% | 10.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Hilal | 74% | 1.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Hilal. Calibrated probability 65% (raw model output 74%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.97 – 2.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 0–29.1%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–38.4%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–16.6%
- 1–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Hilal −1.5| Al Khaleej line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 7% | 89% |
| -0.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| 0 | 11% | 15% | 75% |
| +0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| +1 | 25% | 20% | 54% |
| +1.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.