Al-Raed
Al Hilal
The model leans Al Hilal at 60%. Expected goals: Al-Raed 0.93, Al Hilal 2.30. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%. Al-Raed won 1 of their last 3; Al Hilal won 5 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Raed | 13% | 7.84 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.05 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Hilal | 67% | 1.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Hilal. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.93 – 2.30| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 0–210.5%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–18.4%
- 0–38.1%
- 1–37.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Hilal −1.5| Al-Raed line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 9% | 86% |
| -0.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| 0 | 14% | 18% | 68% |
| +0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| +1 | 32% | 23% | 45% |
| +1.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.