Al Hilal
Al-Faisaly
The model leans Al Hilal at 61%. Expected goals: Al Hilal 2.48, Al-Faisaly 0.94. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 57%. Al Hilal won 5 of their last 5; Al-Faisaly won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Hilal | 70% | 1.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.49 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Faisaly | 12% | 8.66 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Hilal. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.48 – 0.94| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.3%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Hilal −1.5| Al Hilal line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| -1 | 49% | 22% | 29% |
| -0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| 0 | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.