Al-Faisaly
Neom SC
The model leans Al-Faisaly at 51%. Expected goals: Al-Faisaly 1.96, Neom SC 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. Al-Faisaly won 0 of their last 5; Neom SC won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Faisaly | 55% | 1.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.20 | – | – | – |
| 2Neom SC | 21% | 4.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Faisaly. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.96 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–25.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Faisaly −1| Al-Faisaly line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 13% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.