Neom SC
Al Qadsiah
The model leans Al Qadsiah at 55%. Expected goals: Neom SC 1.02, Al Qadsiah 2.22. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 58%. Neom SC won 4 of their last 6; Al Qadsiah won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Neom SC | 15% | 6.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.76 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Qadsiah | 64% | 1.57 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Qadsiah. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.02 – 2.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.7%
- 1–18.9%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–37.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Qadsiah −1| Neom SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 11% | 84% |
| -0.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| 0 | 16% | 19% | 65% |
| +0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| +1 | 35% | 23% | 42% |
| +1.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.