Al Shabab
Al Qadsiah
The model leans Al Qadsiah at 63%. Expected goals: Al Shabab 1.12, Al Qadsiah 2.82. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 64%. Al Shabab won 0 of their last 5; Al Qadsiah won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Shabab | 12% | 8.52 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.15 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Qadsiah | 72% | 1.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Qadsiah. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.12 – 2.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.7%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–27.8%
- 0–37.3%
- 1–16.2%
- 1–45.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Qadsiah −1.5| Al Shabab line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 8% | 88% |
| -0.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| 0 | 12% | 15% | 73% |
| +0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| +1 | 27% | 20% | 52% |
| +1.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.