Al-Wehda
Al Shabab
The model leans Al Shabab at 50%. Expected goals: Al-Wehda 1.38, Al Shabab 2.10. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%. Al-Wehda won 1 of their last 4; Al Shabab won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Wehda | 24% | 4.16 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.40 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Shabab | 53% | 1.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Shabab. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.38 – 2.10| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.9%
- 0–26.8%
- 1–36.6%
- 2–26.5%
- 0–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Shabab −0.5| Al-Wehda line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 14% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 21% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 22% | 32% |
| +1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.