Al Shabab
Al Riyadh
The model leans Al Shabab at 50%. Expected goals: Al Shabab 1.91, Al Riyadh 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. Al Shabab won 0 of their last 5; Al Riyadh won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Shabab | 54% | 1.84 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.11 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Riyadh | 21% | 4.66 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Shabab. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.91 – 1.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–08.7%
- 3–16.3%
- 1–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Shabab −0.5| Al Shabab line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 23% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 22% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 14% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.