Al Riyadh
Al Nassr FC
The model leans Al Nassr FC at 69%. Expected goals: Al Riyadh 0.70, Al Nassr FC 2.87. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 52%. Al Riyadh won 2 of their last 5; Al Nassr FC won 5 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Riyadh | 6% | 17.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 13% | 7.59 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Nassr FC | 81% | 1.23 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Nassr FC. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 81%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.70 – 2.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–211.7%
- 0–311.2%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–28.1%
- 0–48.0%
- 1–37.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Nassr FC −2| Al Riyadh line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 5% | 94% |
| -0.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| 0 | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| +0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| +1 | 18% | 20% | 62% |
| +1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.