Al Diriyah
Al Nassr FC
The model leans Al Nassr FC at 60%. Expected goals: Al Diriyah 1.26, Al Nassr FC 2.64. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 67%. Al Diriyah won 2 of their last 6; Al Nassr FC won 5 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Diriyah | 15% | 6.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.48 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Nassr FC | 66% | 1.51 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Nassr FC. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.26 – 2.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.9%
- 1–37.8%
- 0–27.1%
- 1–16.7%
- 0–36.2%
- 2–25.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Nassr FC −1.5| Al Diriyah line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 10% | 84% |
| -0.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| 0 | 16% | 17% | 67% |
| +0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| +1 | 33% | 21% | 46% |
| +1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.