Al Diriyah
Al Kholood
The model leans Al Diriyah at 56%. Expected goals: Al Diriyah 2.47, Al Kholood 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 65%. Al Diriyah won 2 of their last 6; Al Kholood won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Diriyah | 64% | 1.55 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.14 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Kholood | 16% | 6.20 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Diriyah. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.47 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–06.4%
- 1–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Diriyah −1| Al Diriyah line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 22% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 18% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 10% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.