Predictions · King's Cup · outside model coverage
Jeddah
0–5
Won
Al Kholood
The model leans Al Kholood at 60%. Expected goals: Jeddah 0.79, Al Kholood 2.10. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match21
67
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jeddah | 12% | 8.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.70 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Kholood | 67% | 1.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Kholood. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.79 – 2.10| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 0–212.3%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–38.6%
- 1–36.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Kholood −1| Jeddah line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 9% | 87% |
| -0.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| 0 | 13% | 19% | 68% |
| +0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| +1 | 32% | 24% | 43% |
| +1.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.